Ukraine Crisis - Role of Russia, agenda of different parties and current developments.

Ukraine Crisis – Role of Russia, agenda of different parties and current developments.

Q. Critically analyze outline for Ukraine crisis with respect to Russian role and response from western world. Also explain agendas of parties involved and current development to solve the crisis?

Time-line for Ukraine Crisis

– Ukraine got independence from former USSR in 1991.

– In 2004, Orange Revolution begins after reports of widespread vote-rigging in presidential election nominally won by pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych.

– Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko leads mass street protests and civil disobedience which results in annulment of poll results by supreme court following which Yushchenko was declared as a President.

– In 2010 elections pro- Russian Viktor Yanukovych became President.

– In 2013 Yanukovych took decision to abandon co-operation agreements with EU and seek closer ties with Russia after which people protested in Kiev.

– Russia interfered with announcement of agreeing to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third.

– But protest tuned violent and clashes erupted after which President Yanukovych disappeared.

– Protesters took over presidential administrative building and Olexander Turchynov declared as interim president.

– Parliament declared Russian as second language

– In 2014, Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol.

– Russia's parliament approves President Vladimir Putin's request to use force in Ukraine to protect Russian interests. President Putin signs a bill to absorb Crimea into the Russian Federation.Crimea's secession referendum on joining Russia is backed by 97% of voters, organisers say, but vote condemned by West as a sham.

– Civil war started calling for a referendum on independence between eastern Ukraine.

– Ukraine elects Petro Poroshenko as president in an election not held in much of the east.

– Russia's parliament cancels a parliamentary resolution authorising the use of Russian forces in Ukraine.

– The EU signs a landmark association agreement with Ukraine.

– Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 from Amsterdam is shot down near the village of Grabove in rebel-held territory, with the loss of 298 lives.

– In Sep 2014 "significant" withdrawal of Russian troops from eastern Ukraine.

– In Oct 2014 Pro-Western parties win Ukraine's parliamentary elections.

– In Feb 2015 the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France announced a ceasefire. The deal also involves the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front line

What is Russia's interest in Ukraine?

– Close ties of Eastern Ukraine and Crimea
– Russia wants control over Black sea
– It wants counter NATO and US influence in this region.

How world responded to annexation of Crimea by Russia?

– Russian state banks were excluded from raising long-term loans

– Exports of dual-use equipment for military use in Russia was banned and future EU-Russia arms deals are to be banned.

– EU-US ban on exports of some oil industry technology and services, though gas remained unaffected.

– The EU-US sanctions also target many senior officials in the pro-Russian separatist revolt in eastern Ukraine, including Crimea.

– People close to Putin were blacklisted.

– G8 suspended Russia. But...

1. BRICS nations refused to join US-EU backed sanction against Russia
2. Japan also refused to cancel investment plans in Russia
3. India is also not going to back any US sanction against Russia.
4. Russia has world’s largest energy resources, therefore, energy-hungry China also silent.

What are demands of different parties to solve Ukraine crisis?

Ukraine

- Reestablishing government authority over eastern Ukraine
- Donetsk and Luhansk regions wants greater self-rule
- Disarming of rebel forces
- Marking boundary between Russia and Ukraine

Pro-Russian rebels

- Separation from rest of Ukraine
- Recognition of people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk
- No disarmament of separatist forces;
- Amnesty for separatist leaders.

Russia

- Guarantees for rights of Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine
- Grant of full autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk in a federal system
- No return of Crimea to Ukraine
- Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from combat zone.

EU and US:

- Restore Ukraine's territorial integrity
- End Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine
- Withdrawal of all Russian troops and heavy weapons
- Demilitarization zone between the combatants
- Full democracy in Donetsk and Luhansk

Minsk 2015 Summit

1. Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire

2. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides

3. Effective monitoring and verification regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons

4. A dialogue on the holding of local elections

5. Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk conflict

6. Release of all hostages and other illegally detained people

7. delivery of humanitarian aid under international supervision

8. Restoration of full social and economic links with affected areas

9. Full Ukrainian government control will be restored over the state border

10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory

11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with adoption of a new constitution by the end of 2015