Weather Forecasting System: Recent Advances

Weather Forecasting System: Recent Advances

Question: There have been many advanced in the field of weather prediction services in India in recent times. Discuss.

- Weather forecasting system in the nation has been continuously improving in terms of various parameters such as accuracy, associated impact and lead time.

- Earth System Science Organisation-India Meteorological Department has been taking steps to enhance the same through the following:

- Upgradation of observation system

- Modernisation of advanced data assimilation tools

- High performance computing systems

- Intensive training of ESSO-IMD personnel for facilitating the implementation of advanced global/regional/meso scale prediction models for enhancing weather forecast accuracy in temporal and spatial scales

- It also worked on rapid dissemination of weather forecast assessments/warnings

- HPC has been scaled up to 11.2 petaflops to provide ongoing efforts for increasing weather forecasting capacities through assimilation of all available global satellite radiance data for generation of forecast products at 22 km grid internationally and 9km or 3 km grid over Indian regional or mega city domains

- As per the XIIth plan, for the National Monsoon Mission initiative, other institutions of ESSO such as the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology/ESSO IITM Pune, Indian Nation Centre for Ocean Information Services(ESSO-INCOIS) Hyderabad and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting(ESSO-NCMRWF) NOIDA have also proceeded on advanced coupled ocean atmospheric weather and climate model for the following:

- Enhanced accuracy of prediction of the monsoon rain on an extended range for seasonal time scale (16 days to one season)

- Improving accuracy of prediction of temperature, rainfall and extreme weather events for short to medium range time scale (close to 15 days) so forecast skills experience quantitative improvement for operational services of ESSO-IMD

- Via Indo-US partnership, a Monsoon Desk has been established for joint functioning of seasonal forecast of the Indian monsoon rainfall

Facts and Stats

- The two phases in which ESSO-IMD issue weather forecast for rain in the months of June to September is April and June

- India is divided into 4 geographical regions for the same: NW India, NE India, Central India, Southern Peninsula

6-parameter Ensemble Forecasting System is used in making weather predictions involving the following:

6-parameter Ensemble Forecasting System are:

- NE Pacific to NW Atlantic SST Anomaly Gradient (December and January),

- Southeast equatorial Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (February),

- East Asia Mean Sea Level Pressure (February and March),

- Central Pacific (Nino 3.4) Sea Surface Temperature

- (March to May and tendency between March to May and December to February),

- North Atlantic Mean Sea Level Pressure (May)

- Northcentral Pacific 850 zonal wind gradient (May).