Monsoon Forecast predictors

Q.  The monsoon prediction model used by India Meteorological Department uses which of the following predictors for monsoon forecast?

1) Minimum Temperatures over North-west India
2) Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula
3) El-Nino
- Published on 16 May 16

a. 2, 3
b. 1, 3
c. 1, 2
d. All of the above

ANSWER: 1, 2
 
Since 2005, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala using an indigenously developed statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days. The model uses the following six predictors:
  • Minimum Temperatures over North-west India,
  • Pre-monsoon rainfall peak over south Peninsula,
  • Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over south China Sea,
  • Lower tropospheric zonal wind over southeast Indian ocean,
  • upper tropospheric zonal wind over the east equatorial Indian Ocean, and
    • Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) over the south-west Pacific region.

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